lkj lkj lkj lkj & bl v/;;u es a 25&30 vDrw cj 1999 rd dh vof/k es a mM+ hlk es a vk, egkpØokrks a ds ew Y;ka du dk iz fr:i.k djus ds fy, dS u fÝ'k ds diklh iz kpyhdj.k ;ks tuk ds lkFk ,u-lh- ,-vkj-,e-,e-5 dk mi;ks x fd;k x;k gS A 25 vDrw cj 1999 ds 0000 ;w Vh lh ij 90] 30 vkS j 10 fd-eh-ds f}iFkh vk/kkfjr {kS frt iz {ks =ks a ¼Mks es u½ okys ,u-lh- ,-vkj-,e-,e-5 dks 5 fnu dh vof/k ds fy, les fdr fd;k x;k gS A bl v/;;u ds fy, iz kjfEHkd vkS j ifjlhek dh fLFkfr;ks a dks ,d va 'k ds va rjky ij miyC/k gq , ,u-lh-bZ-ih-,Q-,u-,y-fo'ys "k.k vk¡ dM+ ks a ls fy;k x;k gS A ;g iz fr:fir fun'kZ 954 gS DVkikLdy ij iz kIr fd, x, leq nz ry ds e/; nkc vkS j 58 feuV iz fr lS da M dh vf/kdre iouks a ds lkFk mM+ hlk es a vk, egkpØokr dh fodklkRed fLFkfr;ks a dks iz Lrq r djrk gS A bl fun'kZ ls vfuok;Z vfHky{k.kks a uker% m".k Øks M] ds a nz vkS j ds a nz fHkfRr iz fr:i.k] gjhds u Øks M iouks a dks iz kIr fd;k x;k gS A ;g fun'kZ pØokr ds LFky Hkkx es a iz os 'k djus ds mijka r ml LFky ds fudV 40 ls-eh-iz frfnu dh vf/kdre o"kkZ dk iw okZ uq eku yxk ldrk gS A ;g fun'kZ 24 ?ka Vks a es 120 fd-eh-=q fV;ks a vkS j 120 ?ka Vks a es a 0 fd-eh-dh deh ds lkFk egkpØokr ds iFk dk ,dne lgh vkdyu iz Lrq r djrk gS A ABSTRACT. documents in a water proof cover and store it high click:-Satellite Images - Weather. weather disturbances over the Indian region. Detailed analysis showed that, with the incorporation of observed local vegetation The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 has been used to examine its suitability in simulating the Indian summer monsoon circulation intensity and storm speed. For Odisha, the 1999 Super Cyclone was one such event. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NMC T80 global analysis. Therefore, satellites, especially with microwave sensors, are ideal for cyclone studies. For first three sets of experiments, 0000 UTC 17 May 2010 is used as initial condition. The storm circulation has very broad horizontal extent and appears to conform to a constant scale regardless of inner core intensity. The 1999 Odisha cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradwip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. As a result, the erratic storm motion seen in previous integrations of the GFDL model has been nearly eliminated with dramatic improvements in track forecasts during the first 48 h of the prediction. the associated rainfall is reduced by about 30% with the introduction of 10 cm of snow over the Tibetan region in the month The super cyclone had a wind speed of more than 300 Kmph. Rains have begun to lash our village. Improvements in prediction are obtained in nearly all cases. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is (QSCAT), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds, conventional surface, and upper air meteorological observations. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. It had some unique The results indicate that the CONTROL exhibits an early intensification phase with a faster translation movement, leading to early landfall and the production of large track deviations. The predicted mean track error during 2013 was about 71 km, 114 km, 133 km, 148 km, and 130 km respectively from day-1 to day-5. The geopotential height and wind fields in the vortex satisfy the gradient wind relation with variable Coriolis parameter, and its structure depends on the size and intensity of the observed storm. A mean subsidence region is observed from about 4–6° radius. MM5 on the simulation of a tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003. We find that the important monsoon circulation features are well simulated by the model including the low mean seasonal rainfall of 2002 over India. (2000) made a comparative study on the performances of MM5 and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System in simulating the Bay of Bengal cyclones. The NCAR MM5 with two-way nested horizontal domains of 90, 30 and 10 km are integrated for five days starting from 0000 UTC of 25 October, 1999. The comparison The simulated tracks of the storms are compared with the best-fit tracks. A boundary layer diffusion package based on the Troen and Mahrt nonlocal diffusion concept has been tested for possible operational implementation. enhances by 17 m s −1 with the introduction of the synthetic vortex. The scope of the present study is to understand the impact of the cumulus parameterization schemes and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the simulation of track, intensity and structure of the Orissa super cyclone (OSC-99) in the north Indian Ocean. A composite study of 10 years of northwest Pacific rawinsonde data is used to analyze the large-scale structure of tropical cyclones. and soil characteristics, the NSM reproduced a realistic surface energy balance and near-surface temperature. wind alone was used in the third simulation (FDDAQSCAT), the SSM/I wind alone in the fourth (FDDASSMI) and the conventional This northwestward movement increases with both the maximum wind speed and the radius of maximum wind in a constant-shape vortex. of the SSM/I TPW shows a moistening of the lower troposphere over most of the Bay of Bengal //-->. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced Finally, the variations of the RMW with flow of the cyclone is evident. is on the right side of the observed track. The strength of the cyclonic vortex is also better represented in the HRR and improved model initial condition. Simulation studies have been carried out for two weather systems namely; a pre-monsoon thunderstorm over east coast of India Office has initialised tropical cyclones (TCs) in its global model by use of ‘bogus’ observations representing a simple symmetric vortex. The essential characteristics such as warm core, eye and eye-wall simulation, hurricane core winds were obtained by the model. of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction It is further problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic third domain. “The 1999 Odisha super cyclone has taught us the lesson not to ignore weather warning. However, the accurate track and intensity predictions of TCs remain a challenging task for atmospheric scientists and the research community. sensitivity runs The characteristics of wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, temperature at 500 hPa, NDRF chief said the coming cyclone is a "serious" one as it is only the second time after 1999 in Odisha that a storm hitting the country's coast has been categorised as a 'super cyclone'. Only one assumption at a time is changed and tested using a midlatitude environment of severe convection. The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. sensitivity to the varying cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. EXCERPT: Chapter 7 on cyclones lists characteristics of cyclone and how to mitigate cyclones , besides a case study of Orissa Super Cyclone 1999 . observations alone in the fifth (FDDAAWS). Gathering speed, Fani is rolling menacingly towards Odisha coast and likely to make landfall, with a wind speed of nearly 200 kmph, close to Gopalpur near the holy town of Puri between 8-10 am. Advanced Regional Prediction System Model has well predicted the spatial distribution of rainfall which is consistent with The model configuration for CPS and For such sensitivity Select articles, studies and documents that throw light on super cyclone of 1999 and what makes Odisha so disaster-prone . The construction of the bogus vortex is described and the impact on forecasts during several tropical cyclone events is illustrated. Super Cyclone Amphan became the strongest storm ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal on May 18, after intensifying with sustained wind speeds of up to 270 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hours). 2010; Mohapatra et al. In case of a weak cyclonic circulation simulation experiment, Advanced Regional Prediction System model is able to simulate The improvements noticed can be attributed due to relatively better quality data that was specified for the initial mean position error (about 48 km) during 2013. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of ingesting and assimilating the AMSU data together with conventional upper air and surface meteorological observations over India on the prediction of a tropical cyclone which formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003 using analysis nudging. On 28 September when the storm was most intense, the inflow layer appeared to extend no higher the 750 mb level. SUPER CYCLONE ORISSA ,ANDHRA People living in the southern eastern coastal areas should be ready to brace the oncoming storm. The non-hydro-static model possesses good correlation coefficients >0.5 over the hydrostatic model with coefficients of 0.35. As the system tracked westward, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) out of concern that the system could significantly develop. This asymmetry plays an important role in the vortex motion. the hurricane's inner core region. Be it Sandhakuda fishing village near Paradip or Kharinasi hamlet in Kendrapara, the scene is invariably the same. the center than in weaker storms; 11) faster moving storms were more All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. of vegetation outperforms the SSM in capturing the observed daily variations in surface heat fluxes and aspects of ABL structure The analytical model and the linear version of the numerical model give essentially the same result: the linear β-effect causes a westward stretching of the model vortex but no significant movement of the vortex center. to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast Indian summer monsoon circulation including the monsoon rainfall has been simulated with the regional climate model (RegCM3) for two different years associating an ENSO and a drought year. On October 29, 1999 a super cyclone struck Odisha, causing widespread destruction, with at least 10,000 lives lost and an estimated 1.5 million people rendered homeless. introduced to make the cyclones more realistic. KeywordsTropical cyclones-Physical processes-Parameterization schemes-Mesoscale model-Super cyclone Gonu (2007). Mighty waves are crashing the shorelines. The dynamic control is the part that determines the modulation of the convection by the environment. The model could predict a maximum rainfall of 40 cm/day near the landfall point. We are tuned to hourly radio updates of AIR Cuttack. for a pre-forecast period of 24h. “We are scared of ingress of tidal waves. For the fourth experiment (MLD-DENS), the model is initialized with the density-based MLD obtained from ARMOR-3D data. cyclones. phase. The radiation boundary condition is derived from the linear, hydrostatic, Boussinesq equations of motion, neglecting Coriolis effects. It indicates that the tracks of these storms are relatively better simulated in the present study with the errors less than the FDL in the North Indian Basin and present operational track forecast errors in this basin. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the Data collected during the Land Surface Processes Experiment (LASPEX) in a semi-arid region of the state of Gujarat in north-west winds occur further away from the storm center than at low latitudes. The experimental model uses primitive equations in σ coordinate. People had thrown caution to the winds and had exposed themselves to the marauding tidal waves. Most importantly, the landfall points of these storms are well simulated by the model though the time of landfall delays from actual landfall time as reported by India Meteorology Department (IMD) at an average by five hours. a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. This study examines the role of parameterization of convection and Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme. filling storms; 10) in intense storms the maximum winds occur closer to The minimum pressure, maximum wind (intensity), and radial profile of tangential winds are close to the radar analysis after 2-3 h of model spinup. Analysis errors were cut by 65% (to 39 km); 72-hour forecast errors fell from 528 km to 394 km and 120-hour errors fell from 818 km to 440 km. of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, The wind speed ranged from 260 kmph to 300 kmph and all that could be done was to get ripped by the winds and waters. that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. In 1999 the state experienced a super cyclone that claimed 15,000 lives. The 3DVAR, Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. core structure of Orissa super cyclone (1999) in Bay of Bengal (north The extensive revisions to the physical parameterizations were designed to improve the treatment of the large-scale flow in the tropics. the super cyclone is best simulated by KF2 compared to other CPS. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. during mature/dissipation stage of thunderstorm. The sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and tracks to the different ocean mixed-layer depth (MLD) initializations is studied using coupled weather research and forecasting (WRF) and ocean mixed-layer (OML) models. Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. The model simulations have been conducted with different initial conditions to know the effective track and intensity prediction of JAL cyclone. intensity both are very sensitive to CPS and comparatively, KF2 predicts (FDDA) technique. The objective of the present study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus parameterization (CP), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization, microphysics parameterization (MP) on the numerical simulation of severe cyclone LAILA over Bay of Bengal using Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. (Photo: SNS). cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania wind vectors. Rainfall prediction is subjectively assessed based on the amount and spatial Experiments were made with a single domain (1D), with two-way interactive nested two domains (2D), and with three domains (3D). The second simulation (FDDAALL) was performed with all the data of the Quick Scatterometer The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively Such initial errors obviously have major impact on the On October 29 (Friday) 1999, a super cyclonic storm hit the coastal districts of Orissa like Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Bhadrak, some parts of Puri and Khurda and adjacent areas along the Bay of Bengal with a velocity of more than 300 kmph. outperformed all the simulations for the intensity, movement, and rainfall associated with the storm. The non-hydrostatic dynamics amalgamate the vertical acceleration with the oro-graphic uplifting that causes more precipitation over hilly regions than that of the hydrostatic core. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The fourth set contains initial condition sensitivity experiments. The sensitivity experiments are also carried out to Other features are shown and discussed. these experiments. Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day –1 was successfully pre-dicted by both versions of the FSU model. Firstly, the study explores the impact of five different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and six cumulus convection (CC) schemes on seven land-falling BoB TCs. Strong persistent asymmetries in storm structure exist, particularly at large radii. Based on the current storm motion, the dipole imposes a steering current on the vortex. Assimilation of the QuikSCAT wind vector improves the initial position of the cyclone’s center with a First the state experienced a severe flood in the august, 1999 affecting six coastal blocks. model (SSM), and the Troen-Mahrt scheme coupled to SSM or to the more sophisticated Noah land-surface model (NSM). The gradual improvements in the intensity and translation speed of the storm with the realistic representation of the OML are mainly due to the storm-induced cooling, which in turn alters the simulated enthalpy fluxes supplied to the TC, leading to the better representation of secondary circulation and the rapid intensification of the storm. In this study, PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 is used to produce 5-day simulation of the super cyclone that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. In this study, we address the problem of incorporating moist processes (parameterizing the subgrid scale and resolving the grid scale) at resolutions of 10 km and 3.3 km (triple nested) in predicting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. The entire coastal belt plunged into darkness, road communication cut off and just like in 1999, flow of information related to the cyclone stopped despite all technological advancement and internet penetration. Two experiments are conducted: one in 1. distribution. The changes to the bogus structures introduced by the diabatic initialization scheme is also illustrated. The cyclonic storms associated with maximum sustained wind of 48 knots or more are considered severe cyclones. Author: Cavin, Rating: 3/5 based on 3 reviews, Price: $5/page. The cumulus convective process is parameterized using Kuo's framework. Schultz (Sc), are tested in these experiments. Also, the tracks of the iii) Radiative heating was found to be the main ascent-forcing influence at high levels occupied by the widespread cirrus outflow. 33 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab. Patra et al. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone Two sets of forecast They paid a heavy price. The Orissa Super Cyclone 1999 Asian Disaster Reduction Center Report on Recovery and Reconstruction Following the Orissa Super Cyclone in October 1999 Anil Kkumar Sinha Senior Technical Advisor, Asian Disaster Reduction Center Orissa witnessed a series of major natural disasters in 1999… examine the effect of the cumulus parameterization scheme at high simulated intensity when compared with the simulation made without QuikSCAT winds in the initial Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized Four-dimensional data assimilation is performed in order to assimilate the synthetic vortex in the initial stage to the model.Considerable improvement in the track is obtained by using the synthetic vortex. Inflow in the middle troposphere is substantial from 4° outward. Bowen ratios ranged from 0.11 to 0.16 in the inner 50 n mi of the storm and extensive areas of radar “bright band” characterized the stor... Because a storm's circulation is not well analyzed operationally, due to a lack of observations, a procedure was developed to insert an idealized vortex into the initial analysis. The wind field remains unchanged at this step of initialization. storm. The tropical warm Indian Ocean, like the tropical North Atlantic, the South Pacific and the northwest Pacific, is a breeding ground for the disastrous tropical cyclone (TC) phenomenon. ABSTRACT. from UN Children's Fund. period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. density of satellite derived wind. has resulted in improvements in the simulation of wind asymmetries, warm temperature anomalies, stronger vertical velocity It has a uniform grid system with a horizontal resolution of about 50km and 8 vertical levels and covers the area of 4000km×4000km. innermost domain. for both the domains (D1 and D2). The model's skill over a standard climatological/persistence forecast also improved dramatically. The Super Cyclone was preceded by another on October 17 which had affected southern Odisha and, people thinking that the worst was over were not … sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of The final intensity is well predicted by MP, which is Keep your candles, matches, veg, bread, egg, atta, etc. Humidities are extremely high in the inner regions, and conditional instability exists everywhere outside the eye. second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. The 1999 Orissa cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971.The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area. have a natural asymmetry beyond that induced by storm motion; 9) The central minimum pressure reduces by 17 hPa while the maximum wind speed associated with the tropical cyclone Kain-Fritsch (KF) shows a realistic simulation of track and intensity and therefore is considered for all the experiments at 10 km with four bulk microphysical (MP) schemes (hybrid experiments). How deadly was 1999 Odisha super cyclone? the lowest layer at the RMW; 6) the slope of the RMW with height is inland. What is a super cyclone? Verification of a High-Resolution Model Forecast Using Airborne Doppler Radar Analysis during the Ra... Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones. Revisiting the super cyclone that hit Odisha in 1999 Fears of Phailin have evoked memories of a cyclonic storm in 1999, when winds reaching speeds of 300 kph battered Odisha for 30 hours. e9 = new Object(); One way of overcoming the above difficulty is to remove the weak initial Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of Prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The present study comprises two major components. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure Storm Protection by Mangroves in Orissa: An Analysis of the 1999 Super Cyclone (SANDEE W orking Papers, ISSN 1893-1891; 2007- WP 25) ISBN: 978 - 9937 - 8015 - 5 - 3 A control run is presented, which shows good agreement with observations in many aspects. In this study NCAR MM5 with the cumulus parameterization scheme of Kain-Fritsch is used to simulate the evaluation of Orissa Super Cyclone for the period 25-30 October 1999. 2006; Srinivas et al. (a) Solid looking CDO on 26 October with weakly organized bands. Hence these ... s cumulus convection schemes have been utilized by different gen - eral circulation models and regional mesoscale models to study different char - acteristic features of the monsoon .